A Brick Wall? Part 1

#RARE...literally

Pretend I haven't gone two months without a blog post.  Pretend that I'm not a lazy ain't shit nigga who's been busy with work, gym, and thirsting on Twitter. Can't do that?  Shit.  Anyway, I've been watching a lot of basketball lately, yet still missing a bunch of games.  I refuse to watch Wizards games as they occur due to my superstitions (shut up), so I end up watching them after the fact.  This just in: John Wall's on a tear.  How much of a tear?  In the last 9 games, Wall is averaging 25.0ppg/9.3apg/4.9rpg/2.0spg on 56/64/83 splits. YO.  He's hit as many 3s during this stretch as he did all season last year, which brings me to my first point of this post:  Can you really judge someone's shooting ability based on .6 shots a game?

I didn't watch every 3-pt shot Wall tossed up last year, but with such a low frequency, I'd imagine there were some that were taken at the end of the shot clock, some taken at the end of quarters, and maybe even one that was taken in an attempt to draw a foul.  His first season gives us much more useful numbers IMO, and even though they're still shit (29.6% from 3...), they're much better than the 7.1% he shot last year. Additionally, the fact that even during his rookie year he shot less than two 3-pt field goals a game shows that he knows it's a bad shot for him; this isn't Monta Ellis.  I of course agree that for Wall to be a superstar, he will have to shore up his jumpshot; part of why Rondo isn't a superstar is the lack of a reliable jumper. One of the ways that Irving > Wall is his VERY reliable jumpshot, and if Wall wants to make that jump to "elite PG" status, that's just one step he'll have to take.


That being said, Wall has shown considerable improvement from last year to this year, ESPECIALLY when you consider he missed the first 33 games of the season due to a knee injury (which I never hear any Wall detractors bring up).  How much improvement?  Well in the lockout-shortened 2011-2012 season, here are Wall's jump shot percentages:

From 10 to < 16ft - 33.7%
From 16 to < 3pt - 30.2% (He took more shots here than anywhere else but the rim, which is ridiculous)
From 3pt - 7.1%

Overall, he was 28.5% on jumpers

Wall's jumper's spirit partner

ABSOLUTELY DREADFUL all around. Not only did he shoot terribly from 3 (despite taking few shots), he took almost as many shots from the worst location (16ft to < 3pt) as he did from every location excluding the rim combined.  TERRIBLE.  Now for the 2012-2013 season:

From 10 to < 16ft - 36.7%
From 16 to < 3pt - 40.1%
From 3pt - 31.0%

Overall he is 38.9% on jumpers

Still not stellar numbers, but a jump of over 10%. This brings him closer to company such as Stephen Curry (43.5% on jumpers), Kyrie Irving (43.3%), and Chris Paul (44.1%), all point guards who are acknowledged as good shooters.  He's shooting better than Ty Lawson (36.5%), Deron Williams (38.3%), and Jrue Holiday (38.7%). Again, not excellent, but great improvement for someone who was LAUGHABLE as a shooter last year.  He's still taking too many long 2s, but if he can continue to improve from that range, it won't be a terrible shot.

So basically: YES, John Wall had a shitty shooting year last year, but so did a lot of players during that lockout season. He also was able to play every game and was on an absolutely terrible Wizards squad. I'm cool with how he did last year, especially since this year shows he's made an effort to improve his jumpshot.


Another oft-brought up aspect of Wall's game is his susceptibility to turnovers.  I will always acknowledge that Wall has a "pace" problem.  He's only really got one speed, and his desire to make the flashy play often results in turnovers (he's averaged 3.7/game over his career).  That being said, outside of Chris Paul, let's look the turnover rate this season for ball-dominant, high assist percentage point guards (including Wall)

John Wall - 8.7 assists/36min; 44.7 AST%; 3.9 TO/36min; 18.0 TO%
Rajon Rondo - 10.6 assists/36min; 50.0 AST%; 3.7 TO/36min; 22.6 TO%
Greivis Vasquez - 9.7 assists/36min; 45.8 AST%; 3.3 TO/36min; 18.6 TO%
Tony Parker - 8.2 assists/36min; 40.4 AST%; 2.8 TO/36min; 12.6 TO%
Ricky Rubio - 8.9 assists/36min; 38.8 AST%; 3.7 TO/36min; 22.4 TO%
Russell Westbrook - 7.7 assists/36min; 38.3 AST%; 3.5 TO/36min; 13.4 TO%
Jrue Holiday - 8.0 assists/36min; 38.6 AST%; 3.6 TO/36min; 17.4 TO%

Now I didn't put Kyrie Irving here because his 31.2 AST% is lower than the 38% cutoff that I had, but you can see that Wall's turnover numbers are about average for point guards that assist at such a high rate.  Wall's AST% is higher than all of these point guards outside of Vasquez and Rondo, and his TO% is actually LOWER than all of these outside of Westbrook, Holiday, and Parker.  He's in pretty good company as far as that goes.  AGAIN, I'd be the first person to concede that he has to work on his pace and his turnovers.  It isn't some ridiculously terrible thing though.


I've also heard some people discussing Wall as a potential bust...which is ridiculous to me.  If not for Blake Griffin and a ridiculous 20/10 rookie year, Wall is likely the ROY. Last year he put up comparable numbers to his rookie year, despite a hectic lockout season.  Right now, Wall is averaging 16.8ppg/7.6apg/1.4spg.  Taking the lowest common denominator of his points, assists, and steals per 36min, the only players to average 15.6/7.9/1.4 per 36min for their first 3 seasons are Phil Ford (who completely fell off after his 3rd season partially due to injury), Tim Hardaway (a multiple All-Star), Andre Miller (another All-Star), and...John Wall.  If you make the criteria 16/8/1.4 per game, the only players with multiple seasons within their first 3 years are Damon Stoudamire, Kenny Anderson, Hardaway, CP3, Magic, Pooh Richardson (another flame-out), and John Wall.  Those are nice co-residents, and that's even acknowledging that he hasn't improved quite as much as some of his fans and detractors have hoped.  Numbers that less than 10 players have replicated can't be bust-worthy, can they?  I wouldn't say he's a top 10 point guard as of yet (partially due to an abundance of point guard talent), but he's far from trash.  His affect on the Wizards has been quite palpable; without him, they were 5-28...with him (even with injuries to other players), they're 21-16.  His return has improved the play of Emeka Okafor and Bradley Beal, and helped bring their defense to top-10 status.  While their offense is still pretty bad, it's not as if they have a multitude of offensive weapons.



I was listening to Blake Griffin on The Champs Podcast by Neal Brennan (check that out btw) and he mentioned that he was getting killed during his second season for not having a complete game (including a jumper, true post moves, etc.).  I can see how a player like Blake (or John Wall) would get irritated by the constant nitpicking.  In Blake, you had a player who averaged 20/10 for his first two seasons in a league with very few 20/10 guys period.  In Wall you have a player averaging 16/8, which are pretty good numbers for a  young point god.  Yes, Blake lacked (lacks?) a reliable jumper and is a bad free throw shooter.  Yes, Wall could stand to improve his jumpshot and pace.  Neither of those deficiencies make either #1 pick a freaking bust.  Blake was lucky enough to get a bona fide superstar as a teammate in Chris Paul.  Wall was flanked by post-PED Rashard Lewis, JaVale McGee, Swaggy P, and Andray Blatche.  Let's not act like he had some great teammates.  Now that he has quality locker-room guys (and indeed a bit of talent), the Wizards have shown marked improvement.  In my Eastern Conference preview, I predicted that the Wizards could get the 8th spot if they weren't...the Wizards.  The Wall injury at the beginning of the season pretty much confirmed that they're the Wizards, but since Wall's return, they've been an above-.500 team. The current 8 seed in the East is below .500...you can do the math.


So basically, YES, Wall has flaws...like any other NBA player.  He's only 22 years old, and still has time to improve further.  I'm not worried about Wall being a bust, and when you take into account his athletic abilities, it's not a stretch for him to jump into the top-10 PGs next year (for the record, my top-10 right now in no order is CP3, Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook, Ty Lawson, Kyrie Irving, Mike Conley, Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo, and Derrick Rose...the last two are obviously assuming they're at least 75% of their prime selves).  Part 2 will be about the John Wall/Max contract extension discussion.