NBA Eastern Conference Preview

Salutes my dude

Yo so the offseason is almost over...as with any Olympic year, the offseason was ridiculously short.  So over 2 months after LeBron went off and had a ridiculous year, winning MVP, Finals MVP, the NBA Championship, and an Olympic Gold Medal all in one year, we've got the NBA season starting again.  I had been doing team previews, but I started slacking off on those due to...well beer and football, but I figured I still have enough time to do these conference previews before the season officially starts.  There were A LOT of moves made during the offseason, but I'll try to keep my predictions and such as short as possible (as in not short at all)


Also, I'm not previewing any team that I feel has no shot at making the playoffs (sorry, Toronto Raptors fans)

This is dope

Miami Heat

The defending NBA champions made a pretty big acquisition, and in the doing so, continued to change the way the NBA thinks about basketball.  You could see that when the NBA decided to strike the Center position from the All-Star Game rosters and from the decision of many teams to either create effective small-ball lineups or get a big dominant enough to expose said small-ball lineups.  Adding Ray Allen was just a spectacular move for the Heat; remember all of those Battier misses before the NBA Finals?  Ray Allen won't be missing nearly as much.  Remember how James Jones never really seemed to work out for the Big 3 Heat?  Again, Ray Allen will be an integral part of the Miami Heat offense.  Could LeBron really end up averaging 27/10/10 this year?  It's a possibility.  If Wade's knees prove to be healthy and Allen's ankles hold up, Miami is pretty much set, barring catastrophic injuries to LeBron, Bosh, etc.  Watching LeBron work in the post and kick out passes to Ray Allen resulting in the most open looks he's gotten in his career...is going to be terrible for the rest of the NBA.  (And god forbid that Rashard Lewis actually plays at 75-80% of the level he did at the end of his Seattle/beginning of Orlando tenures...)

Projection (barring injuries): 62-20, 1st in EC

Playoffs: 2012-2013 NBA Champions

Well then.

Boston Celtics

When you think about it, the 2011-2012 Boston Celtics overachieved.  A LOT.  Pushing the eventual NBA champions to 7 games, despite missing Avery Bradley and Jeff Green, despite Pierce and Allen being injured, and despite Miami being healthy except for Chris Bosh, was truly remarkable.  The fact that they took a 3-2 series lead home AND required LeBron to go Super Saiya-jin for Miami to win speaks volumes to the team that Doc has molded.  Boston made some GREAT pick ups...Jason Terry fits everything that they wanted from Ray Allen this year, AND he's OK coming off the bench, no matter who it's for.  Courtney Lee is a young underrated shooter with NBA Finals experience, and gives them depth at both the 1 and the 2.  Jeff Green has returned and by all appearances is as good as he's ever been; getting him to guard LeBron, Melo, and other 3s playing the 4 will be a key to Boston's lineups against small-ball teams, and will free up Pierce to use his energy on the offensive end.  They still have the most enigmatic point guard in the game in Rajon Rondo, someone whose name sparks debate no matter where you rank him among NBA point guards.  Managing to convince Kevin Garnett to sign a 3 year deal was another great move by Danny Ainge.  If the 2012 Playoffs were any indication, Garnett still has a couple of quality years in the tank, and drafting Sullinger and Fab Melo will help them monitor Garnett's minutes, keeping him fresh for the important playoff run.  As I look at Boston's roster, they really might be the deepest team in the Eastern Conference.  A lot of high-quality players...a lot of people with injury history as well.  If you've been watching the NBA since 2008, then you know that you can never really count Boston out, so don't be surprised if you see another Miami/Boston ECF...and if it goes 7 again.

Prediction: 58-24, 2nd in EC

Playoffs: Lose to Miami in ECF in 6

It's Hovi baby!

Brooklyn Nets

Man, I was so hyped for Dwight Howard joining the Nets...even though the Nets were gonna trade 3 dudes and 3 picks for it, a lineup that included Deron and Dwight was just too fucking good to pass up on...unless you were Orlando and you weren't interested in keeping Dwight in this conference (...or wanted to give the Lakers what they wanted...or wanted to give Dwight what he ultimately wanted...well played, Dwight, well played).  They ended up not getting Dwight, but they did manage to convince Deron to stay through the signing of...Joe Johnson.  I'm not entirely mad at that trade, but I AM mad that Joe Johnson hasn't been arrested for robbery at this point.  That being said, a Deron/JJ backcourt is nothing to sneeze at, and who wouldn't be happy for the Nets to do well this year?  I'm hyped...they had the Jay-Z concerts (that I couldn't get to), the new gear, the new stadium, the energy is crazy.  Brooklyn is the birthplace of so many legends, man...you can only cheer for Brooklyn.  I'm also partial to Brooklyn because they took up the cause of #3 of the Wizards Redemption Trio, Andray Blatche...he of the misspelled jersey, among other things.  I like Blatche.  I feel like he needed to go somewhere else to really thrive, and hopefully he'll have that chance in Brooklyn.  He's a quality big and he's still quite young.  Moving on from Blatche, the Nets really have some good players...in addition to Lopez/Humphries/Wallace/JJ/Deron, they've got Blatche/Brooks/Watson, giving them a pretty decent rotation.  The Nets won't win the chip, and it's likely that they won't get to the ECF, but they will be pretty exciting to watch this year, IMO.  

Prediction: 53-29, 4th in EC

Playoffs: Lose in 2nd round to Miami Heat in 5

And this is whom you choose to place your faith?

Indiana Pacers

Indiana really got lucky last year...yes, they were (and still are) a good team.  However, you'd be a liar to say that they were the third best team in the EC last year (if all teams were healthy, etc.).  That being said, part of doing well is staying healthy, and the Pacers did that pretty well.  It's not their fault that Rose or Dwight or Shumpert or Amar'e or Lin or Allen or Bradley or Bosh got injured...they just took advantage of most of those injuries and powered through to a second round exit (thanks to some truly inspirational play from Dwyane Wade).  The Pacers largely stayed put, trading away Darren Collison but getting back Ian Manahwlkwefljw, signing George Hill to a substantial deal, and scooping up high-flyer Gerald Green.  They matched Portland's offer to Roy Hibbert, so needless to say, Pacers fans should really be expecting something out of Hibbert.  I got in a debate on Twitter about what exactly Hibbert needs to do to justify his contract, but really...dude needs to step it the fuck up next year.  I don't mean All-Star appearances due to injuries to better-suited players...I don't mean 13/9/2 in like 33min a game.  I mean actual great center numbers...like 20 and 10 to go along with those 2 blocks.  Dude is 7'2", man...I understand that he performs in the context of the team, and that they spread the wealth regarding scoring and such but...fuck that.  Do work, dude.  If Hibbert doesn't step it up (or Granger) then the Pacers won't get any further than they did last year.  

Prediction: 52-30, 3rd in EC

Playoffs: Lose to Boston in 2nd round in 6

Well at least Joe's gone...

Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta was mired in that whole "make the playoffs but never be a threat to do shit" for quite a bit...dropping the $120 million man, Joe Johnson, was the first move they made to get themselves out of that position, and while they'll still end up a middle seed and still end up out in the 2nd round at the latest, it's clear that they were fed up with the direction they had been going in.  Josh Smith is still a top 20 player in the NBA, and having Horford for an entire season can only help.  It's difficult to see how Jeff Teague, Anthony Morrow, Lou Williams, and Devin Harris will work together on the team, but that's a fairly talented group of guards (on paper).  Frontcourt depth is a problem, but the addition of multiple shooters (including one Kyle Korver) was definitely a good look.  I won't be worried about Atlanta until I hear that they picked up Dwight (which was a rumor earlier this offseason) or LeBron, but I think they at least treaded water here.  I'm actually pretty hype to see a team with Morrow, Lou Will, and Kyle Korver...if they stay healthy, prepare for some exciting basketball.

Prediction: 50-32, 5th in EC

Playoffs: Lose in 1st round to BK in 6

These pictures KILLED me

Chicago Bulls

Yup, despite missing Derrick Rose for the beginning of this season, I still have Chicago reaching the playoffs as the 6th seed.  The defense is still top tier, as is the coaching, and picking up Hinrich was a great move, even if it cost them Korver.  Belinelli is a pretty good 3 point shooter (although not at Korver's level), and really, as long as the defense is still stout (which, even with Asik leaving, they kept most of the reasons why the defense was so great), the Bulls will still win games that most of us expect them to lose.  Obviously, relying on Boozer and Rip Hamilton to shoulder a significant amount of the scoring burden is dangerous, but again, I watched almost this same team get 50 wins in a 66 game season, despite missing Rose for what, 20+ games?  When Rose comes back (I have to think this happens...remember this face?), this suddenly becomes a dangerous team again.  You're no longer relying on Belinelli and Hamilton to give you 25+ppg, you're no longer asking Luol Deng to give you very good offensive production in addition to his defensive skills, and you're not relying on Carlos Boozer to not be...Carlos Boozer.  My dude James basically noted that last year, the Bulls were in full "let's hold down the fort until our fearless leader returns" mode, and that there's a chance that that doesn't happen this year.  I agree to an extent; the Bulls were clearly hoping for Rose to return and lead them to the ECF again (...where they would have lost to Miami anyway) and they played some truly inspired basketball.  I feel like people forget that it took Rose getting injured in Game 1, and Joakim Noah getting injured in Game 3, and THEN CJ Watson passing to freaking Omer Asik at the end of Game 6, PLUS a flagrant foul not being called, PLUS Andre Iguodala (of 61.7 FT% fame) hitting 2 free throws for the 76ers to win in 6.  A LOT OF RANDOM SHIT had to go down for the 76ers to win that series, and if Watson isn't an idiot, I have to take Chicago in Game 7 at home, even without Noah.  The Bulls were still a solid team without Rose.  This year, they won't take teams by surprise with their intensity and effort...and Gibson will have to show that that 44% shooting from 10-15ft last year wasn't a fluke, and that he can effectively fill the scoring void that Boozer leaves when he hits the bench.  I'm still kinda talking myself into this, but I think the Bulls will get the 6th seed in the EC.  They aren't as bad as people are making them out to be.


Prediction: 48-34, 6th in EC
Playoffs: Lose to Indiana in 1st round in 6

I love this dude nh

Philadelphia 76ers

I know a lot of people are excited about the 76ers.  I know that some people have them grabbing the 3rd seed or something because Boston is so dependent on Pierce and Garnett.  I know more people still have them at either the 4 or 5 spot because they have no faith in Atlanta or Chicago.  Luckily, I'm cool bucking against the trends.  I was one of the most excited people for Philadelphia after the Andrew Bynum deal...it was clear that Bynum WANTS to be a #1 guy somewhere, and it was equally clear that despite Buss deciding against trading him for years, he wasn't going to be the #1 guy until Kobe retired.  You've seen the video of Bynum laughing after Kobe missed a potential game-winner...you've seen him laughing when Pau got murdered by Blake Griffin...you've seen him benched after shooting a freaking 3-pointer.  Dude is a very...interesting individual.  By most accounts, he's well-read and pretty smart, but he's weird as hell.  The premature graying of his hair conjures images of Rasheed Wallace, and I really think he's just as odd as Rasheed.  Outside of Bynum, they acquired Dorell Wright and Jason Richardson both passable-to-good 3pt shooters.   In addition to that, they took up the cause of #2 of the Wizards Redemption Trio, Nick Young.  Nick Young is a better 3pt shooter than Lou Will, but for the most part, they're a wash.  I'm interested in how Young performs...will he continue to be a reckless, streaky gunner, or will he take smarter shots this year?  If Nick can be an effective scorer this year, it'll take some of the pressure off Bynum.  Losing Iguodala is a huge loss, IMO, but it forces Evan Turner to develop further in what should be a pivotal 3rd year for the #2 pick of the 2010 Draft.  I think the 76ers have talent, and Doug Collins is a proven coach...but so much of the team's success revolves around Andrew Bynum.  On one hand, I honestly believe we'll see a different Bynum in terms of his focus, but on the other hand, all the focus in the world can't save those knees.  He recently had another procedure performed on them, and suffered a bone bruise this offseason.  He did make it through a rough, lockout-shortened season last year, so he's got that going for him, but chronic knee issues don't generally bode well for big men.  I WANT Bynum to do well...he's a very captivating individual.  With those knees though...you never know.

Prediction: 47-35, 7th in EC

Playoffs: Lose in 1st round to Boston in 5

They really stacked oldheads though...

New York Knicks

If we were to go by talent, I would place the Knicks higher than this...they have a LOT of talent on their squad.  Despite starting the year completely out of shape, Carmelo Anthony still ended up with a PER of 21.1...which is right around his career average.  He had a horrid shooting year (43/34/80 is bad for him), but I have to think that this year he'll at least show up in shape.  He's still almost impossible to defend, and he's still a top 5 offensive talent in the NBA.  That being said, the Knicks are a mess.  Stoudemire is injured...again, and they have yet to figure out how to make the Stoudemire/Carmelo duo work together on the court.  Stoudemire was on a TEAR in December 2010, averaging 29.8ppg and 9.7rpg on 54/50/81 splits.  He cooled down after that, but after the arrival of Melo, his numbers dropped to 23.5/7.3, and the combination of less touches and fatigue caused by D'Antoni riding him so hard in the beginning has led him to not be the same player.  Constant injuries, stupid conditioning mistakes, and poor judgment (HE PUNCHED A FUCKING FIRE EXTINGUISHER CASE) led to Amare simply not being an effective player for his contract last year.  This year, the cries for Amare to be a bench player have gotten louder.  It makes sense; similar to LeBron, Carmelo can exploit a number of mismatches at the 4, and they have the personnel to play small ball.  Amare at the 5 also makes mismatches, and having him do so with the bench unit is a smarter move than moving reigning DPOY Tyson Chandler to the bench.  In addition to the Melo/Stat issues, they've now signed 5 players older than 35 (Prigioni, RASHEED, Jason Kidd, Kurt Thomas, and Marcus Camby), one of whom was freaking retired.  The Knicks are always enjoyable to watch, and if Iman Shumpert comes back and can improve from a fairly impressive rookie season, the Knicks will only be even more exciting.  As always, their dysfunctional players and coaching combine to create a team less than the sum of its parts.  I can't imagine the Knicks not being motivated by the Nets to at least get to the playoffs, but I also can't see the Knicks doing a lot of damage this year.  Lots of miles on their tires, lots of injured/injury-prone players, and they'll be dependent on Carmelo basically being an ENTIRELY DIFFERENT PLAYER than he has been for his career.  Maybe the Olympic experience and seeing LeBron have a spectacular 2011-2012 season will inspire some change on Melo's part, but for now, count me among the skeptics.

Prediction: 45-37, 8th in EC

Playoffs: Lose to Miami in 1st round in 5

All in all, I believe the conference is Miami's to lose.  The biggest question marks are the health of Wade and Allen, but they help each other by existing and limiting each other's minutes.  I'm confident in the Celtics and Nets, but I'm not sure how Indiana or Atlanta will turn out.  I do believe that Milwaukee and Washington have a chance to get to the 8th spot, but I can't count out Chicago and put Milwaukee in the top 8 when I still don't know what they're gonna do with the Ellis/Jennings backcourt.  I can't put Washington there because of Nene's health, even though I REALLY REALLY WANT THEM TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, if only so people can get off John Wall's back.  Barring some great play from Ilyasova/Jennings/Ellis or the Wizards not being the Wizards, some combination of the 8 teams that I named earlier are making it to the playoffs.  There IS the possibility that the Knicks fuck up and end up outside of the 8, or that Chicago can't muster the energy from last year to power through their offensive ineptitude, or Bynum could have a season-ending knee injury that derails the 76ers...but I'm willing to bet that those 8 teams will make it to the playoffs.  Other than Boston, I'm not seeing any of the Eastern Conference being more than a speed bump on Miami's road to a repeat.  They can only really hope that someone on Miami's team gets injured and it DOESN'T result in LeBron elevating his game.