Em.Vee.Pee.

For the record, I wanted a pic of Kareem receiving it

So we're almost at the halfway point of the 2012-2013 NBA season, and people have been discussing their MVP candidates in earnest for quite some time now...and why not?!  It's what we do until the award is actually given out, so I figured I'd join in as well.

The MVP is an interestingly-titled award in that the term "most valuable player" in interpreted in different ways by different people.  I've seen "best player on the best team," "best player on one of the best teams," "player without whom a playoff team wouldn't be a playoff team," as well as "player with the best statistics overall" all used as a definition of what the MVP should be.  Me?  I personally would like the award to go to the most important player, period...so basically, the guy whose departure would cost his team the most wins.  This is difficult to gauge in a game where everything is so related, but advanced statistics continue to make strides in solving this.  The new(ish) stats PER and Win Shares (both total and per 48min) help clear up the picture in ways that didn't exist when I was a child watching basketball.  When you look at Michael Jordan's career, for example, you see that not only did he win 10 scoring titles, but he also led the league in PER 7 consecutive years, and led the league in Win Shares 9 times (8 of these times he also led the league in WS/48).  Every year that he won the MVP (except for his last season with the Bulls, which might have been due to his impending retirement as well as the Bulls' 62-20 record), MJ led the league in PER, Win Shares, and Win Shares/48min.  By the eye test as well as pretty much every metric available today, Michael Jordan was the MVP during the 5 years he won, and you could make the argument that he deserved the MVPs won by Charles Barkley and the 89-90 MVP won by Magic.

After Michael's retirement, the case for MVP became a little more murky.  For example, for all of the dominance that we remember from Shaquille's prime years, he won a grand total of 1 MVP.  That year was of course PRIME prime Shaq, with him leading the league in scoring as well as averaging the most rebounds and blocks per game since his rookie season.  He led the league in PER, WS, and WS/48 as well, establishing what our eyes already told us was true.  The following year, however, Allen Iverson won the MVP...while AI led the league in scoring and steals, his PER was an elite (but not MVP-level) 24; putting that into perspective, during Jordan's worst (and possibly not MVP) MVP season, his PER was 25.2, his worst full season since his rookie year.  A season for the ages typically results in a PER of 30 or above, as MJ has done 4 times, with an additional 3 seasons above 29.  I was into basketball during the 2000-2001 season, though, so I can understand why AI won that MVP. One, despite his team having the Defensive Player of the Year, 6th Man of the Year, and MVP, that Philadelphia 76ers team simply didn't look impressive on paper.  Two, the fact that a 6' guard (closer to 5'10" in reality) weighing ~160lbs could will his team to 56 wins, while leading the league in scoring (over some formidable competition...Stackhouse's best year, Shaq, Kobe, Vince Carter, T-Mac, etc) along with the storylines surrounding the team made AI a prime candidate for MVP.  And finally, if we went by "player who'd cause the most damage with his departure," it's likely that with AI's departure, Philly goes from the only team to win a game against the Lakers that postseason to a team that doesn't make the postseason.  By any advanced metric, AI should not have won that MVP; that MVP belonged to Shaq.  Yet, that isn't always what we go by when we decide who is the MVP.

In recent years, the MVP has gone to the best player on the team with one of the best records in the league. LeBron's Heat won the 3rd most games in the NBA, and eventually the NBA Championship.  Rose's Bulls led the league in wins, and even though I feel like Chris Paul deserved the 07-08 MVP over Kobe, Kobe's Lakers won the most games in the Western Conference that season (Paul's Hornets won one less game...incredible considering that roster, IMO).  I've yet to see an MVP recipient who didn't deserve it on some level...which brings me to this season.

Going by recent criteria (best player on one of the best teams), my top 5 candidates, for the record, are

LeBron James - He literally does everything on that team. It's amazing how much worse they look when he's on the bench.  They're also still the #1 seed in the East...the year of the LeBron has clearly continued, despite his 54/42/73 splits slowly normalizing to his numbers from last year.

Kevin Durant - Simply incredible how much he's improved. In one year, we went from LBJ followed by a healthy Dwight Howard and Chris Paul as the most impactful players to LBJ followed by Kevin Durant.  He's improved defensively, on the boards, as a playmaker, and continues to shoot at a 50/40/90 pace while leading the #2 seed in the West AND being #3 in scoring (while shooting 4(!) less shots/game than the #2 Carmelo Anthony, and 5(!!) less shots/game than the #1 Kobe Bryant)

Chris Paul - Probably my favorite player in the league right now...my roommate notes how I comment on him more than on anyone else in the league, even LeBron or John Wall.  The basic stats don't tell the complete story here; while CP3 averages a very good 17.0/9.5/2.6, this is in 33min a night AND on the deepest team in the league in the LA Clippers.  They have the best record in the league and he leads the league in WS/48.  It's clear that he's the leader, and when you watch them play...he's like a maestro, orchestrating the Clippers, their opponent, the crowd, and yes, the referees.

Carmelo Anthony - Recent foolishness aside, Carmelo and the Knicks have had a very good season thus far.  They're #2 in the East; Carmelo is #2 in scoring.  He's shooting a career-high 43% from 3 as well as a career-high TS% of 59%.  He's shown a different attitude toward playing, period, no doubt the result of: 1. The team as a whole playing better; 2. Getting more touches with Amar'e out; and 3. The addition of Jason Kidd, Rasheed Wallace, and the other oldheads.  His numbers don't tell the entire story, but they do help; Carmelo is an MVP candidate for a reason.

Tim Duncan - I know, it's become hip to pick Tony Parker over Timmy.  I also know that some people would rather give it to Westbrook or Zach Randolph, but I'm giving the slot to Timmy.  His Spurs have the 3rd best record in the league, and Tim is averaging 17.4/9.5/2.6 in less than 30min a night.  While Parker is also having a very good season (19.2/7.1 on 52/39/82 splits), Duncan's defense makes me give him the nod.  This is still Duncan's team, and yet again they'll go as far as he can take them on defense.


Now, I can understand Westbrook being chosen (he's arguably the catalyst for that Thunders squad) or Zach Randolph/Marc Gasol (the Grizzlies have been pretty good this year and you could argue for either of them), but there have been some other interesting picks I wanted to speak on for a bit.

James Harden is proving the disbelievers wrong, one 25pt game at a time (he now holds the Houston Rockets' record for consecutive 25pt games).  The efficiency isn't the same as last year (as expected), but the numbers are astounding; 26.5/5.3/4.2/1.9 on 45/36/86 splits with a TS% of 61%.  His Houston Rockets are currently leading the league in PPG and are the 6th seed in the West.  Due to the low rank of the Rockets, I can't consider Harden a candidate, but whenever he's not playing, you really see the impact he's had on that team.  Can any non-basketball heads name his starting lineup outside of Jeremy Lin?

Despite his team being 5 games under .500, I've consistently seen mentions of Kobe Bryant for MVP.  Kobe's stats are pretty damn good, despite steadily declining from his torrid start; 30.1/5.1/4.8 on 48/36/84, EXCELLENT shooting efficiency numbers for Kobe.  By nearly any measure, this is his best season since his MVP year, and it's possibly better than that year.  Hell, this is an MJ year when you look at it from an offensive standpoint.  However, despite these individual achievements, this has not translated to team success, a modern prerequisite for an MVP recipient; the Lakers are 6-14 when Kobe scores 30 or more points (and this includes a 5 game win streak during which he scored 30+).  Considering their schedule after this point, it is a real possibility that the Lakers won't make it to the playoffs, which would make a Kobe MVP particularly awkward, especially with other qualified candidates.


It's incredible how the goalposts move for this guy, but that's y'all's guy...personally, I can't give the MVP to a guy who can't even get his team to a winning record, but that's just me.  Apparently a scoring title is an instant entry to the MVP conversation.  I just can't, but you guys continue to rock on.