Winning Time

Can't front, I've had the Craig Ehlo face before =/

WARNING: LOTS OF TEXT AND STATS HERE

NBA TV is going to be the ruin of my life.  During my last couple weeks of employment, the Olympics were going on...and at the same time, NBA TV was showing replays of old playoffs games (and other extraordinary shit like Allen Iverson dropping 50 pts in a game during his rookie season).  At one point last week, they were playing Finals elimination games; that is, the last game in an NBA Finals series.  Some were painful to watch (Philly vs. Los Angeles, 2001) while others were GLORIOUS (Boston vs. LA, 2008).  I pretty much spent every hour watching these replays, noticing stuff that I hadn't before, or just watching games I had missed (I pretty much didn't watch basketball after the 2002 Western Conference Finals until LeBron's game winner against Orlando in 2009...so I missed every year that my team, the Wizards was fucking competitive.  FML)  Anyway, while watching Game 6 of the 2008 NBA Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics, a stat flashed on the screen that caught my attention: in his career up to that point, Kobe Bryant had averaged 21.9ppg in elimination games.

It almost defies logic; the player lauded as the most clutch in the game since Michael Jordan hadn't shown up in the most important games for his team.  Putting the 21.9ppg in perspective for Kobe...his career scoring average is 25.4ppg; his playoff scoring average is 25.6ppg (another indictment; in the playoffs, he averages only .2ppg more than during the regular season?)  21.9ppg is lower than his playoff average, which is already only average for him.  The fact that these are "win or go home" games should mean that they are games to show up for, especially if you're the leader of the team, or you're gunning for Jordan's spot.  However, there have been instances where things that look obvious are actually wrong.  For example, if anyone had asked me who shot more 3-pointers and made them at a more efficient rate between Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James, I would have immediately responded "Melo."  Looking at the numbers, though, not only has LeBron shot more per game (4 attempts to 2.6), but he's made them at a higher rate as well (33.1% to 32.2%...neither is much to brag about, but some people brag about Kobe's when he's shot 33.7%, so....).

Keeping that in mind, I decided to look at a few players and compare their performance in elimination games; Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson, and Dwyane Wade.  To make things fair for Kobe (who didn't start during his first couple of years), I'm only counting games where the players started.  I'm comparing the players' regular season stats, postseason stats, and elimination game stats to show the differences between these 5 players (in my opinion, 5 of the best wing players of the past 2 decades).

Kobe Malone.

Kobe Bryant has been involved in 17 such playoff games.  His average stat line for these games is actually not terrible, I suppose.  It's just that for a top tier player, you'd expect a little more. For the record, Kobe's W-L in these situations is 9-8.  His numbers don't really correlate with the results (for example, who remembers the 6/24 game where Ron Artest and Pau Gasol put in work?).  So, on 42/30/73 splits, we get 23.9ppg, 6.3rpg, 3.8apg, 1.2spg, and 3.1tpg.  Again, not bad, but let's look at his career playoff numbers...

In 200 career playoff games that he started, on 45/34/82 splits, we get 27.4ppg, 5.5rpg, 4.9apg, 1.5spg, and 3.1tpg.  Outside of rebounding (Kobe's had some great rebounding performances in elimination games; you might remember his 15 boards in Game 7 in 2010 against Boston in the Finals), he's performed decidedly worse in elimination game situations.  Making matters worse, we look at his career regular season numbers...

In 1011 games from 1998 to 2012 (he started all but 5), Kobe averaged 27.1/5.7/5.1/1.6/3.1 on 46/33/84 splits.  Once you take out his seasons where he came off the bench, you get some outstanding numbers...27/6/5 over a career is pretty elite.  We already know that defenses are typically better in the playoffs, so the increase on percentages is understandable.  His all-around playoff numbers are roughly equal to his regular season numbers, but the more pressing thing is that his elimination game numbers are terrible in comparison.  Even if we ignore the drop from 44.9 to 41.5 in FG% or the one from 33.5 to 29.7 on 3P%, what is the excuse for the drop from 81.9 to 72.7 in FT%?

THE CHAMP IS HERE.

LeBron has been involved in 10 playoff elimination games, making his calculations pretty easy.  I'll let the numbers do the talking regarding his lines...

His splits are...pretty horrendous.  46/28/69 is pretty damn bad for a top-tier player.  31.4ppg/10.2rpg/6.6apg/1.1spg on the other hand....that's pretty fucking good.  The 4.8 turnovers per game is also pretty bad, but when you're telling someone to take over the game, I guess turnovers happen at a higher rate.  You'd be hard pressed to find someone averaging 31/10/6 over a 10 game period in general, much less in the most pressure filled situations.  For the record, LeBron's W-L in these situations is 4-6; the wins and 1 of the losses had some spectacular numbers, the losses pretty pedestrian ones (by his standards).  Let's look at his playoff numbers though...


In 115 playoff games, the splits get better, going to 47/31/75, which is respectable.  The averages of 28.5/8.7/6.7/1.7 with nearly 1 block a game are top-tier level, even if he turns the ball over more than desired.  Outside of shooting splits, he's generally performed better in elimination game situations than in his overall playoff numbers.  Moving to his regular season numbers, we get some pretty exemplary ones...

As expected of someone who's been championed as one of the best in the regular season, we get some pretty great numbers, with 27.6/7.2/7.9/1.7 on 48/33/75 splits.  Outside of assists, LeBron performs either at or above his RS numbers, which are already stellar.  He could stand to take some free throw shooting classes, but his other numbers are pretty decent for a wing player who isn't a 3pt specialist.  Most surprisingly, his 3P% is pretty good for someone who causes me to cringe whenever he takes a 3 point shot.

Captain Cheese Eyes...

Now we move to the G.O.A.T., Michael Jordan.  I've ignored his Wizards years, because: 1. I've ignored the years where Kobe didn't start, thus making most of his numbers better, and 2. We can all agree that a 40 year old MJ playing after taking a couple of years off wasn't the MJ we remembered.  Also, since the Wizards didn't make the playoffs when he played, it would skew what I'm trying to compare here.

Michael Jordan has been in 13 elimination games; his record is 6-7...so right away we see a myth propagated by those of us who watched his 90s games busted (that those who watched his earlier shit already knew): MJ indeed did not will his team to victory in every win-or-go home situation.  In fact, he lost more of these than he won.  Of course, after winning his first championship (and thus having a championship team), he only lost 1, which was during his comeback season, but still, MJ was not perfect.  His performance in these games is also eye-opening


His splits are actually pretty similar to Kobe's average splits, going 46/33/76.  His numbers are predictably ridiculous; 31.3/7.9/7/2/1.3 is phenomenal.  Consider that this is a 6'6" 200lb guard and not a 6'8" 260-270lb monster like LeBron and they're even more ridiculous.  His numbers are very comparable to LeBron's, and his steals and blocks show his perimeter defensive savvy (as well as differences in play), but again, we see a large number of turnovers due to MJ being a primary ballhandler.  His overall playoff numbers are also stellar...

On 49/33/83 splits, MJ went off for 33.4/6.4/5.7/2.1 with 3 turnovers a game (over 179 games).  Wow.  As we already knew, MJ's playoff scoring was exemplary.  He has the highest playoff PPG over a career in NBA history, and the gap isn't as close as it is for his regular season PPG record.  Dude could score.  2 steals and a block a game, along with around 6 rebounds and assists is also nothing to scoff at, and his splits are very efficient.  MJ was a monster.  His regular season numbers reveal more of the same.

In 930 games, his regular season splits are even more efficient; who in the NBA today is scoring 31.5ppg on 51/33/84?  We could see Kevin Durant do something similar next season (excluding FTs, LeBron could as well), but outside of them, I doubt we'll see anyone else approach those numbers.  Oh, and by the way, he was also averaging 6rpg/5apg/2.5apg/1bpg as well.  Keep in mind that these are CAREER numbers, rather than a single season, and it's easy to see why MJ is considered the greatest wing player of all time.

Can we get dude back in the league?

Allen Iverson is a personal favorite of mine; they listed him at a generous 6' 160lbs (when he was probably closer to 5'10" 150lbs) and you'd be very hard-pressed to find anyone who played with more heart.  Unlike Kobe who got to benefit from studying under veterans AND being able to share the lead role with the most dominant player of his time, Allen Iverson had to pretty much carry his team from the beginning.  It's telling that in his rookie season he scored 40 or more points in 5 straight games (breaking Wilt's record)...and they lost all 5 games.  You might remember that his playoff PPG is second only to Jordan, but it's also easy to remember that he was the definition of a volume scorer.

In 13 elimination games, Allen Iverson had a 5-8 W-L record.  He had a number of 30+ point performances that resulted in losses, and showed up on these occasions.  On 39/35/83 splits (A TERRIBLE FG% for a top player) he averaged 28.7/3.2/5.5/1.8 a game WHILE PLAYING 45.5 MINUTES A GAME.  Again, a true volume scorer (he averaged ~26 shots a game to get those ~29pts) but his effort was almost never in question, and his 83% mark at the FT line is a 5 percentage point improvement over his regular season marks (and a 7 point increase over his average playoff marks).

In the playoffs, we see similar numbers.  On 40/33/76 splits (pretty inefficient), he averaged 29.7/3.8/6/2 over 71 games.  Scoring nearly 30 points a game in playoff play is a feat on its own, but also averaging 6 assists and 2 steals, along with playing 45.1 MINUTES A GAME is just otherworldly.  A true competitor, even if his style of play never resulted in a championship.

His regular season numbers don't deviate too much from his playoff numbers.  On 43/31/78 splits, AI averaged 27.7/3.8/6.3/2.2 over 829 games (playing 41.8min a game).  Injuries and differing roles be damned, AI put up fairly consistent numbers, winning 4 scoring titles along the way.  As defenses clamped down on him in the playoffs (he was generally the only real offensive weapon until he moved to Denver) his FG% plummeted, but he maintained his high level of scoring.

Dwyane Wyane

Dwyane Wade is widely considered to be the best SG in the game right now.  If he lasts as long as Kobe will (which I actually doubt, even with LeBron playing alongside him) he could surpass some of Kobe's career marks.  Considering the number of games he has already missed due to injury, this is next to impossible in my opinion, but who knows, maybe the advances we've made will enable him to play 17 seasons.  We all remember Dwyane's remarkable Finals run in 2006, but what were his numbers like overall?

Dwyane Wade is 5-6 in elimination games.  He's had a couple of historical playoff performances that resulted in wins, and on 44/30/87 splits he's averaged 26/5/5.4/1.4/1.  Overall, he's not the model of efficiency, but what is remarkable here is his FT %.  When you compare his FT% in these games versus playoff games in general and then his career, you see that Dwyane steps up in a unique way compared to everyone else I chose here.

In 110 playoff games, Dwyane averaged 25.2/5.6/5.3/1.7/1.1 on 48/32/78 splits.  His 3 point shot is on par with everyone else selected (which is interesting when you see his regular season rate) and his all-around production is above average.  Out of those selected, his scoring average is the lowest, and while his FG% is second only to MJ, his 3P% and FT% aren't anything special.

His regular season averages are pretty close to his playoff numbers, at 25.1/5.1/6.2/1.8/1.  His splits, however, are where the differences lie.  In the regular season, his shooting splits are 49/29/77.  That means that going from the regular season to elimination game situations, the differences are -5/-1/+10!  Any improvement on an abysmal 29.1 3P% is appreciated, and the FG% drop is expected as you face tougher teams in the playoffs.  However, he makes up for it with his 10pt increase in FT%...no one else shows an improvement at that rate.



So basically, in elimination game situations, we have these lines

Kobe Bryant -      23.9/6.3/3.8/1.2 on 41.5/29.7/72.7 splits
LeBron James -    31.4/10.2/6.6/1.1 on 46.4/28.3/69.2
Michael Jordan -   31.3/7.9/7.0/2.0/1.3 on 45.8/33.3/75.7
Allen Iverson -      28.7/3.2/5.5/1.8 on 38.9/34.9/83.3
Dwyane Wade -   26.0/5.0/5.5/1.4/1.0 on 43.7/30.0/87.0

In comparison to their overall playoff averages, this represents a change of...

Kobe Bryant -       -3.5/+.8/-1.1/-.3 on -3.4/-3.8/-9.2
LeBron James -    +2.9/+1.5/-.1/-.6 on -.5/-2.9/-5.3
Michael Jordan -   -2.1/+1.5/+1.3/-.1/+.4 on -2.9/+.1/-7.1
Allen Iverson -      -1.0/-.6/-.5/-.3 on -1.2/+2.2/+6.9
Dwyane Wade -     +.8/-.1/-.7/-.4/0 on -4.9/+.9/+10


Interestingly enough, going by what I have found, you could argue that anyone here outside of Kobe steps up on these occasions.  LeBron improves on scoring and rebounding, while getting slightly lower assist numbers, MJ scored less but added rebounds, assists, and blocks, and outside of FT%, maintained a decent level of efficiency, AI saw his overall numbers dip slightly but improved his 3P% and FT%, and Dwyane basically did the same thing as AI, except with a bit more of a scoring improvement and a ridiculous improvement at the foul line.  Even though LeBron's overall numbers are simply ridiculous, I'm going to give the nod to Jordan here, based on his scoring efficiency compared to the field.  It must be noted that there are a number of variables here not accounted for (such as playing pace, injuries, age, etc.) so really there is a lot more going on behind these numbers.

That being said, I feel like if someone is supposed to be "king of the clutch" or whatever title it is that Kobe fans have anointed him with, he shouldn't see a near universal decrease in his numbers when he encounters these situations.  I'm sure his fans will point to the fact that he's the only one of these 5 with a positive W-L record in these situations (I'll note that the games I struck from the record for him were both losses, so in actuality he's 9-10), but I would argue that he played with better teams than any of the others, with the possible exception of LeBron/Wade's Heat (who still had an injured Chris Bosh) and Jordan's '98 Bulls (who actually got a great performance from Kukoc in that elimination game).  At the end of the day, it's hard to ascribe wins to a player who played subpar in said wins.  We can also see that this is still a problem today...despite him scoring 42 points in the season finale this year, in Game 7 vs Denver he shot 7 for 16, for 17 points.  In the final game against Dallas in the '11 playoffs, he shot 7 for 18 for 17 points.  He's only getting older, so I can't imagine him doing particularly well in these situations going forward.  Luckily, he's got a 6'11" security blanket in Dwight Howard, so should he have another 6 for 24 outing in a "win or go home" situation, he'll probably leave with another win, helping to perpetuate the Kobe myth.


Side note: I did a casual glance at Reggie Miller's numbers in these situations, and before he got old...dude was beasting, hahahaha.  I might edit this post this week with Reggie's numbers, but I'm too exhausted to do it now.

The White Howard.

You are a fuckboy.

So after 4 months of bullshit, Dwight Howard finally got what he wanted...he's out of Orlando.  Partially due to his own fuckery, he was unable to get to his stated preferred destination (the Brooklyn Nets) and instead is playing where he had said multiple times that he didn't want to go........the Los Angeles Lakers.  Helping to facilitate the deal are the Philadelphia 76ers (who get Andrew Bynum AND the bonus of not facing Dwight in the Eastern Conference playoffs) and the Denver Nuggets (WHO FOR SOME REASON ARE COOL WITH BRINGING THE WHITE HOWARD INTO THEIR CONFERENCE).

What did Orlando get out of this, you ask?  Arron Afflalo (a good 2-way SG), Al Harrington (a pretty decent forward), Nikola Vucevic (mostly still an unknown big in NBA play), Moe Harkless (a rookie), and a protected future first round pick from LA, Philly, and Denver.  They also got to dump Jason Richardson's contract.  I'm reading arguments up and down about the goal being to do so poorly that they get good picks out of these first round picks.  Is there going to be a center as good as Andrew Bynum in the near future?  And the picks are from...the Lakers (what picks do they even have at this point?  Anyway, whatever picks they have won't be any good, unless they get them from someone else), the Nuggets (who will be a playoff team for a while), and Philly (who, with Bynum, will also be a playoff team)...so, what picks are they getting again?  Fuck Orlando.  No, the picks from the Nets wouldn't really have been any better (if anything, they'd be worse), but you would have gotten a legit offensive center, a good rebounder, gotten rid of more bad contracts, etc.  With what I was hearing out of some of the media about the Nets deal, I was SURE that Orlando would get an excellent deal out of the whole thing (actually, I felt that either they'd get a Denver/Carmelo-esque deal or Dwight would leave for next to nothing).   Instead, we get this bullshit.

You're gonna have that look a lot bruh

The annoying things about this include Dwight consistently stating he didn't want to go to LA and Orlando doing all sorts of stupid shit.  Duwhite had been saying for a while that he didn't want to follow in Shaq's footsteps, that he didn't want to play alongside Kobe, etc., yet because he decided to waive the early termination option in his contract, he was pretty much stuck with the Magic until they got the deal that they wanted (more on this later).  He wanted to go to Brooklyn, but when the Nets were threatened with an offer sheet for Brook Lopez, they had to take him off the market (by overpaying him).  After that, I heard rumors that he wouldn't sign an extension for anyone but BK (still hearing this btw), and that this was keeping most teams from wanting to commit to a trade for him.  I heard about a possibility that Atlanta would trade for Howard (thanks to Josh Smith and Dwight Howard's friendship), but that was squashed.  Houston pretty much gutted their team to make room for Howard and the contracts that Orlando wanted to get rid of, AND they picked up Jeremy Lin, hahaha.  Somehow, that deal never materialized.  Then...the Lakers rumors started.  Again.  First, I was hearing Bynum and The Artest Formerly Known as Ron for Howard...but Orlando wanted to dump bad contracts, so the deal was a no go.  Then the Cleveland deal...how ironic would that have been?  Dan Fucking Gilbert facilitating a deal letting Dwight do to Orlando what LeBron did to Cleveland...wow.  Luckily, for whatever reason (apparently Bynum was never talked to?) that deal also fell through.  At this point, I resolved myself to the fact that Howard was getting to LA.  Every other team in the NBA seemed to be committed to getting Dwight there.  I blogged before about it...meh.  The Lakers get what they want.  It's an NBA fact.  It was just a matter of what teams would be a part of the deal.  The thing that kept irking me though...no matter what deal I heard that involved LA/Orlando (outside of the first deal), Orlando wasn't getting Bynum.  The only reason I was somewhat OK with the deal with LA was that at least Orlando could get close to equal value.  Howard is a better passer, defender, and rebounder than Bynum, but Bynum is the 2nd best center in the league.  The closest thing they were going to get to Howard was Bynum.  I could at least understand trying to get Bynum.  But instead of that, every third team involved was getting Bynum and Orlando was getting shit.

This brings me to Orlando.  WHAT.  THE.  FUCK.  You bitch about getting rid of contracts, you only get rid of Jason Richardson.  You want draft picks, you get PROTECTED picks from two definite playoff teams and one fringe playoff team.  You don't want to send Dwight where he wants to go, so you let him use reverse psychology to get him exactly where he wants to go.  You want to get value, and you turn down a decent 5/4 combo (Lopez/Humphries), a talented young 2 (MarShon Brooks) in favor of an aged forward (Harrington is good, but this will be his 15th season), a good 2 (Afflalo is young, and DEFINITELY on the upswing.  15ppg on 47/40/80 splits along with good defense is very good) and some unknowns.  Additionally, you help a conference rival get...you know, the 2nd best center in the league.  Granted, Afflalo is an upgrade at the 2 spot.  I 100% agree with getting him out of this deal, and it's not a bad move.  An Afflalo/Nelson backcourt isn't terrible, and after losing Howard, getting some defense in exchange for a washed up vet (J-Rich) is not bad.  I just feel like...you didn't get much else.  Harrington is old, and preferably, Glen Davis would fill the roles that Harrington fills (outside of the 3 ball).  Your Dwight replacement is...Vucevic?  I don't even know at this point.  Houston could have given you more picks and taken more contracts off of you.  The Atlanta deals I saw would have given you Al Horford (a former All-Star) and Jeff Teague (a solid young guard) along with Zach and picks.  Yet you decide to get next to no paint presence in the final deal, give Bynum to Philly, AND manage to piss me off by giving Howard to LA.  FUCK YOU, VERY MUCH, ORLANDO.  FUCK YOU.

Your Dwight replacement.  Congrats.

Now onto Philly.  You guys are winning.  You amnestied Elton Brand, you scooped up Kwame Brown, and everyone laughed.  "Oh, Philly wants to start Kwame Brown?  That'll be hilarious!" "They got rid of Lou Williams, picked up Nick Young, AND are getting Kwame?  So Philly's just throwing away their playoff hopes, huh?"  Then, this deal happened.  Granted, J-Rich is some bullshit.  But...suddenly, picking up Kwame as a backup and signing Spencer Hawes to a 2 year deal don't look like terrible ideas.  Andrew Bynum is good.  VERY good.  Do I think he's as good as Dwight?  Hell no.  Do I think he's better than Roy Hibbert?  HELL YES.  Bogut is in the West now, as is JaVale McGee.  Who's in the East for Bynum to bang with?  Howard's gone.  Garnett can't stop him.  Bosh won't be stopping him.  Horford can't stop him.  Hibbert can't stop him.  Tyson Chandler?  Joakim Noah?  Bynum is really going to have a field day in the East.  Tyson and Hibbert are probably his best match-ups next year, and I think he'll have good games at their expense.  It will be interesting to see how Philly does...I think their starting line-up now looks like Bynum/Hawes/Turner/Richardson/Holiday?  And Bynum as a #1 option?  Very interesting.

Forseeing some of this in the future

Lastly, Denver.  I am so cool with you guys getting Iggy.  Afflalo is good, but Iggy is an upgrade, period.  And really, Denver is great for Iggy.  He doesn't have to run the offense (Lawson/Miller do that), he doesn't have to be the top scorer (Lawson/Gallo can do that), he can focus on being a 2nd or third option and defensive specialist.  It's a great move for him.  HOWEVER.  You fucking helped a team you could possibly play in the playoffs...get THE WHITE HOWARD.  Of all the fucked up shit to do to yourself, bringing Dwight into your conference has to be near the top of the list.  I understand Orlando probably didn't want Howard in the East, so he was probably moving West all along, but damn.  Of course, with McGee and Mosgov, they're one of the better equipped teams to deal with the new Lakers (still), but ugh.  I would be doing whatever I could to keep Howard from joining a team I'd have to play against.  Again, though, that was obviously Orlando's thought process as well.  I don't think you all made out the best in this deal, but you definitely didn't make out the worst.



(There's nothing for me to say about the Lakers.  They got The White Howard.  End of story.)

Is there some sort of unwritten rule that causes GMs, etc. to act like complete idiots regarding deals with the Lakers?  Did the cosmos decide to make up for my generally good luck by making me hate the team that gets the most breaks in the league?  Seriously, fuck the Lakers.  I know David Stern can't do shit about this deal, but I'm holding out hope that he pull something out of his hat.

Where's Super Stern when you need him?